Remociones en masa asociadas a lluvias intensas (rainfall-induced) en escenarios de cambio climático en la cuenca del estero Yerba Loca, Chile central
Rainfall-induced mass movements under climate change scenarios in the Yerba Loca stream basin, central Chile
Clavero, J., Droguett, B., Bambach, N., Pérez-Martínez, W., Aguirre, I., Ramírez, V., Vidal-Páez, P., Briceño-Urbaneja, I., Tamayo, A.
Abstract
Combines high-resolution climate projections (VR-Andes/CESM, RCP 8.5 scenario) with debris flow and debris flood modelling (RAMMS). It projects +3.8 °C by the end of the century, rainfall of up to 260 mm in 24 h and flows 4 to 10 times larger than those in the geological record.
Three periods are analysed (1985–2014, 2030–2059 and 2070–2099). Although annual precipitation decreases slightly, inter-annual variability and the frequency of intense events increase; these events would also occur with temperatures above 0 °C, enlarging the areas that collect liquid water.
The models, calibrated with an inventory of debris flow and debris flood deposits, show that the larger volume translates more into thickness and velocity than into runout. The study concludes that these scenarios must be considered in land-use planning, mitigation works and early warning systems.
